My Investing Muse

Source: CNEVPOST Tesla production update Q3/2022  (extract of the article dated 3rd October 2022) Tesla's production and deliveries returned to normal in the third quarter. Its Shanghai plant halted production for some time during the second quarter due to a Covid lockdown, causing the company to see a rare dip in deliveries. Tesla quarterly deliveries Giga Shanghai, which makes the Model 3 as well as the Model Y, has an annual capacity of more than 750,000 units, according to Tesla's second-quarter earnings report released on July 20. Breakdown of Tesla Q3/2022 deliveries Recently, Tesla completed an upgrade to its Shanghai plant, which media reports say has boosted capacity to around 1.1-1.2 million units. Tesla has 650,000 units of annual capacity at its California plant, including 100,000 units of annual capacity for the Model S and Model X, and 550,000 units of annual capacity for the Model 3 and the Model Y. In addition to these two factories, Tesla's factories in B...

Technical Analysis of Tesla Stock Note that I recommend a fundamental analysis of any company before we consider using the technicals to guide our entries.  While I am bullish about Tesla's fundamentals, here is my outlook for the coming days. Summary of Tesla as of 21 Aug 2022 From the info, we can establish the following: Tesla looks to be ranging around $900 region in the last few days. Tesla is away from the 52-week low of 620.57 & high of 1243.49. The average trading volume of Tesla was 30.03M 1D Chart of Tesla as of 21Aug22 From the above setup, here are my observations: Stochastic has started a downtrend MACD's downtrend was confirmed by the crossover after Friday (19Aug22).   The volume of Tesla for the last week starting from Monday (15 Aug 22) was 29.79M, 29.38M, 22.92M, 15.83M & 20.42M.  The trading volume of each day was under the average of 30.03M .  This reveals the loss of "strength/momentum of the trend". My 3 EMA lines are starting to me...

TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF TESLA (SELECTED SOLUTIONS) Updated as per 6th Nov 2021, Revision on 21 Apr 2022 Summary of Global TAM of Tesla (in USD)  Vehicular insurance $1.09T by 2027 Vehicular sales $8.93T by 2030 Taxi market $120.89 billion by 2027 Solar market $223.3 billion by 2026 Energy Storage market $230 billion by 2027 For the auto market, it was mentioned that Tesla aims to produce 20 million units per annum (ie about 25% of total global sales).  Let us assume prudent market penetration of 5% for the other sectors (by 2027), we can still look at potential annual revenue approaching USD$2T.  The above does not include FSD, Optimus humanoid and other commercial vehicle developments of Tesla. Vehicular Insurance https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/03/17/2194719/0/en/Vehicle-Insurance-Market-Value-Predicted-To-Reach-US-1-096-2-Billion-By-2027-Acumen-Research-And-Consulting.html  Vehicle Insurance Market Value Predicted To Reach US$ 1,096.2...

Tesla released their earnings with a solid beating of the estimates: Summary EPS 3.22 Vs 2.27 Revenue 18.76B Vs 17.84B Earnings Summary from Investing.com Tesla's quarterly revenue since inception from Twitter user @ICannot_Enough From the table above, we can see the  strong growth of Tesla's revenue  from the start in 2009.  The growth looks to be compounding over the years. Tesla's stock has risen over 5% post-market as earnings updates unfold. There is much optimism with insurance growth , Optimus humanoid & FSD and the ramp up production of the 2 new GigaFactories (Berlin & Texas) would provide more reasons to be bullish about $TSLA.  FSD is expected to go live by 2023. Extract from Tesla's Shareholder deck dated 20 Apr 2022 OVERVIEW Cash Operating cash flow less CAPEX (free cash flow) of $2.2B in Q1 Total debt ex. vehicle and energy product financing under $0.1B Profitability $3.6B GAAP operating income; 19.2% operating margin in Q1 $3.3B GAAP net inco...

Gigafactory Shanghai (the world's biggest EV factory) produces about 2,000 vehicles daily. As per Elon Musk, Tesla could have produced more if not for the supply chain challenges & 13 days lockdown at Shanghai. More production growth is expected with Berlin, Texas (grand opening on 7th Apr 2022) and Shanghai's expansion. Shanghai's expansion will more than double production capacity in China to meet growing demand for its cars in the country and export markets. All the locations combined would give Tesla the annual production capacity of 2 million units.  This would not happen overnight as the Gigafactories take time to ramp up, optimize their production and sort out the supply chain challenges from the respective regions.  Thus, the 2 million annual production looks more possible after few quarters of run in. Tesla is expected to announce updates about new Gigafactory in other locations soon as Tesla works towards the target of 20 million unit...

Market leadership happens when your rival mentions you in their promotion, at their costs and doing the entire EV industry a big favour towards sustainability. When a rival makes claim to challenge the market leader, it affirms the lead, the leadership & their own lag . what's better - the rival pays for the promotion. For the EV industry as a whole, it is good to work towards a sustainable future. As per www.thestreet.com, GM Begins Production of Its Tesla Killer Why does Tesla need to spend on advertisements when their competition does it for them.

This is a landmark week in our modern history.  Ukraine found herself caught in a battle as Russian troops poured into the country from several sides. This single "black swan" event has commanded the attention of all countries and brought volatility to the global markets.  This has overshadowed the various good news which would have otherwise introduced positivity to the markets.  US CDC has eased their masking guidelines following a drop in the following: drop in new Covid cases per 100,000 residents in the past 7 days drop in new Covid related hospitalization drop in hospitalization by Covid patients There is also another landmark moment with the nomination of Ms Ketanji Brown Jackson (the first black woman) for Supreme Court.  On top of this, the Core personal-consumption-expenditures index (Fed's preferred inflation measurement) climbed 5.2% from a year ago to hit a new 38 years high for January 2022. photo taken from news - congestion at US ports There is some p...

  What caused ‌ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   ‌stock to fall by over 11% after a record-breaking quarterly earnings report?  Before we dive into details, let us not forget Elon the visionary.  From SpaceX, Starlink, the Boring Company and a future of autonomous, sustainable transport, he has seen the future that most of us cannot imagine.  With this backdrop, let us look into the various reasons for the fall of the stock price: 1.  The delay of the $25,000 Tesla This was deemed by the news to be the main reason for the fall.  As per CNBC, Elon later explained that  Tesla’s driverless tech should eventually be so advanced that it will drive sales of the company’s electric cars to the anticipated high volume of sales with or without adding new models at lower price points .  This did not sit well with the market. Extract from findmyelectric.com about the prices of Tesla in USA for 2022 dated 1st Jan 2022: The Tesla lineup for 2022 (Model S, ...

  ‌ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   ‌had a great Q4/2021 and here are some of the key highlights from their earnings: With 2021 deliveries up by 87%, Tesla achieved the highest quarterly operating margin - a testament that EV can be more profitable than ICE vehicles.   If there is only one metric that we look into for any business, it has to be  free cash flow (FCF) .  For us to appreciate the magnitude of growth, I have thus chosen to focus on the YoY comparisons. Some of the following are extracted from their earnings report: Cash Operating cash flow less CAPEX (free cash flow) of $2.8B in Q4 In total, $1.5B increase in our cash and cash equivalents in Q4 to $17.6B Profitability   $2.6B GAAP operating income; 14.7% operating margin in Q4 $2.3B GAAP net income; $2.9B non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC ) in Q4 30.6% GAAP Automotive gross margin (29.2% ex-credits) in Q4 Apart from an outstanding quarter, I have chosen to show the unaudited annual financial summary.  Th...

Twitter user herbertong shared a very good overview of Tesla's key milestones for 2022. of course, these may change but this puts together a good overview of the progress of  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ . on top of the launch of Giga Texas & Berlin, Shanghai is also in the midst of expansion.  we will see more states offering Tesla insurance. Tesla energy will see expansion and a mega battery plant will be opened. new models will continue to be rolled out and both semi and cybertrucks will see more traction.  Innovations for 4680 batteries, Tesla Bot, FSD will also bring forth more opportunities. 2022 will be an exciting year for Tesla shareholders.  while there are challenges in the supply chain, weather & COVID, let us look forward to the realisation of these milestones.

The world is facing an energy crisis. With energy prices soaring, it leaves all fearful of the coming winter as heating is needful in the households. With OPEC+ not increasing their supply, this has led to oil prices hitting recent highs. Russia has yet to increase their gas supply to Europe as Europe's utility bills continue to climb. In fact, some countries turned to coal (a more affordable) energy source. In the US, gas prices have increased 42% from September 2020 to September 2021. CPI has hit a high of 5.4% on top of other notable increases in prices (from Sep 2020 to Sep 2021). This includes  car rentals up 42.9%, steak up 22%, Lodging up 19.8%, bacon up 19.3% and more. Though there was some retracement of commodity prices from a recent all-time high, the pinch is felt throughout the economy. This has left many to wonder how long will inflation remain  transitory . In fact, several have started to call for the Fed to address the problem of inflation - to start the taper...