Total Addressable Market (TAM) of TESLA - estimate (for selected solutions)

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TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF TESLA (SELECTED SOLUTIONS)
Updated as per 6th Nov 2021, Revision on 21 Apr 2022


Summary of Global TAM of Tesla (in USD) 
  • Vehicular insurance $1.09T by 2027
  • Vehicular sales $8.93T by 2030
  • Taxi market $120.89 billion by 2027
  • Solar market $223.3 billion by 2026
  • Energy Storage market $230 billion by 2027
For the auto market, it was mentioned that Tesla aims to produce 20 million units per annum (ie about 25% of total global sales). Let us assume prudent market penetration of 5% for the other sectors (by 2027), we can still look at potential annual revenue approaching USD$2T. The above does not include FSD, Optimus humanoid and other commercial vehicle developments of Tesla.


Vehicular Insurance
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/03/17/2194719/0/en/Vehicle-Insurance-Market-Value-Predicted-To-Reach-US-1-096-2-Billion-By-2027-Acumen-Research-And-Consulting.html 

Vehicle Insurance Market Value Predicted To Reach US$ 1,096.2 Billion By 2027: Acumen Research And Consulting.  The Global Vehicle Insurance Market is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 5.9% from 2020 to 2027 and reach a market value of over US$ 1,096.2 Bn by 2027.

The global vehicle insurance market is projected to exhibit significant single-digit growth over the forecast period from 2020 to 2027. The increasing number of road accidents that result in major physical as well as financial loss is primarily supporting the market growth. The stringent government regulations in order to protect insured and uninsured people from accidents are further bolstering the market growth.


Vehicular Market Size

https://www.statista.com/statistics/574151/global-automotive-industry-revenue/ 

Global vehicle sales are expected to grow from USD$5,315 billion in 2017 to USD$8,931 billion in 2030.  

Revenue - automotive industry worldwide 2017-2030

Published by Mathilde Carlier Aug 5, 2021

It is projected that the global automotive industry will grow to just under nine trillion U.S. dollars by 2030. It is anticipated that new vehicle sales will account for about 38 percent of this value.  This means that USD$3,393.7 billion will be spent on new vehicles in 2030.

Automation and electrification drive market disruption

Automotive technology will change considerably in the next decade. One in five new car sales globally are expected to be battery electric vehicles, and millions of new self-driving cars will be added to the world’s fleet.

New opportunities in the supplier segment

Technological advancements begin to affect the type of parts that are required to complete the finished product. This allows for further segmentation in the auto supplier industry, particularly of electrical components. The biggest changes to the automotive industry currently are automation and electrification. As autonomous and electric vehicles take over the market, other industries will boom in demand such as automotive semiconductors. China will likely lead in the development of driverless and battery electric technology.

Global auto sales are poised for a post-pandemic recovery

Global sales of automobiles are forecast to fall to just under 70 million units in 2021, down from a peak of almost 80 million units in 2017. The auto industry's most important industry segments include commercial vehicles and passenger cars. China is counted among the largest automobile markets worldwide, both in terms of sales and production. Car sales in China dipped for the first time in 2018 - the market cratered in February 2020 but bounced back shortly after. The global market is poised for a recovery in 2022.

77.7m units of motor vehicles were sold in 2020

China was the largest automobile market worldwide in 2020

24m units of commercial vehicles were sold in 2020 (30.8%)

https://www.statista.com/topics/1487/automotive-industry/#dossier-chapter2 


Size of Taxi Market

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/06/28/2253982/0/en/Global-Taxi-Market-to-Garner-120-89-Billion-by-2027-Allied-Market-Research.html 

Portland, OR, June 28, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- According to the report published by Allied Market Research, the global taxi market was estimated at $69.18 billion in 2019 and is expected to hit $120.89 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 12.3% from 2020 to 2027.


Size of Global Solar Market

https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/solar-energy-market 

Solar Energy Market Outlook - 2026

The global solar energy market was valued at $52.5 billion in 2018 and is projected to reach $223.3 billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 20.5% from 2019 to 2026. Solar energy is the radiant energy emitted from the sun, which is harnessed by using various technologies such as solar heating, photovoltaic cells, and others. It is an efficient form of unconventional energy and a convenient renewable solution towards growing greenhouse emissions and global warming.


Energy Storage Market

https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/the-growth-and-growth-of-the-global-energy-storage-market/

https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2021/08/24/2285348/0/en/Global-energy-storage-market-size-to-record-5-5-CAGR-through-2026.html

Pune, India, Aug. 24, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- As per expert analysts, the global energy storage market size is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% over 2021-2026, creditable to the widespread deployment of smart grid, shifting focus toward renewable power, and commercialization of innovative technologies like flow and solid-state batteries.

Global Advanced Battery Energy Storage System Market is valued at approximately USD 151.96 billion in 2019 and is anticipated to grow with a healthy growth rate of more than 4.8% over the forecast period 2020-2027. 

https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2021/08/24/2285348/0/en/Global-energy-storage-market-size-to-record-5-5-CAGR-through-2026.html 


Tesla battery deployment

Tesla Energy Software is used all over the world to manage energy and utilities.  Tesla has developed an advanced ecosystem of software to support its energy hardware products. Drawing on over 15 years in battery performance technology, Tesla has tailored its software specifically for energy products and improved performance through the management of gigawatts worth of sites operating in 50+ countries.



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