My Investing Muse

With the Russian-Ukraine conflict, let us look at the impact on the markets and identify opportunities for some trades.  With Russia and Ukraine combined for exporting 30% of the global wheat supply , it is no surprise that the price of wheat has hit record prices.    Major exports from Russia may be disrupted because of the sanctions Wheat price surge recently since the war started in Ukraine Looking at the major export items from Russia, we can also identify the various commodities that are likely to be affected in the coming months.  It may be worth our time to explore some of these for short duration trades , especially for palladium, platinum and other food produce.  We can expect energy prices to rise as Russia is one of the biggest suppliers of oil and natural gases to Europe.    Once the conflict has been resolved, we can expect the prices to stabilize.  

This is a landmark week in our modern history.  Ukraine found herself caught in a battle as Russian troops poured into the country from several sides. This single "black swan" event has commanded the attention of all countries and brought volatility to the global markets.  This has overshadowed the various good news which would have otherwise introduced positivity to the markets.  US CDC has eased their masking guidelines following a drop in the following: drop in new Covid cases per 100,000 residents in the past 7 days drop in new Covid related hospitalization drop in hospitalization by Covid patients There is also another landmark moment with the nomination of Ms Ketanji Brown Jackson (the first black woman) for Supreme Court.  On top of this, the Core personal-consumption-expenditures index (Fed's preferred inflation measurement) climbed 5.2% from a year ago to hit a new 38 years high for January 2022. photo taken from news - congestion at US ports There is some p...

Explosions went off in various parts of Ukraine as Putin has ordered a special military operation. Extract from Wall Street Journal (WSJ): Russian troops and tanks pushed into Ukraine and airstrikes hit the country’s capital and more than a dozen other cities early Thursday after President Vladimir Putin said he ordered a military operation to “demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine” and bring its leaders to trial. Ukrainian officials said an initial wave of strikes targeted military installations, airfields and government facilities across the country, as well as border-force installations.  JP Morgan summary of Russia Exports From the photo above (from Yahoo Finance) showing Russian exports as a share of global production, we can expect the price of these commodities to increase because of the current situation.  At the same time, Russia is also one of the biggest suppliers of oil and gas to Europe.  Europe is dependent on Russia for about  40% of its natural gas suppl...

More investors have sounded their concerns on the impact of war, geopolitical events on the stock market.  I have compiled some of my thoughts on this matter. The above summary is extracted from www.investopedia.com and here is the article: https://www.investopedia.com/solving-the-war-puzzle-4780889 Note that the 1990 invasion of Kuwait caused total drop of 16.9% where the market hit the bottom after 71 days but recovered in 189 days (slightly more than 6months).   But what is more of concern for me is the murmur of the potential market crashes.  Here are few to note: The above are some of the major crashes in the market where crashes ranged from 22% to 86%.  Peter Lynch gave a fantastic summary of the market (based on his observation of 93 years in the market).   In every 2 years, the market will drop 10% and more and in every 6 years, the drop will be more than 25%.  But the market always recovers. ‌ We should anticipate these and do not sell in panic. Th...