My Investing Muse

Food Shortage Warning For Preppers - Harvest Data Indicates Trouble Ahead by youtube channel "ClearValue Tax" (The text below is mostly transcriptions taken from the YouTube video) In September of 2021 the price of fertilizer for corn was averaging 175 dollars per acre in September of 2022 it increased to 247 dollars per acre which is a 41% increase. for soybeans, it went from 85 an acre to 110. that's a 25 increase or up 29% Oil price  Despite the recent drop, retail diesel price has still increased by 43% from a year ago On top of increasing input costs this year's growing season, it's been plagued by bad weather here and internationally from America to France to China. The consequences are showing up in the Harvest data and shrinking inventories. Corn inventory (the world's corn stocks) they're down to 12-year lows and it's expected to get worse by the end of the 2022-2023 crop year.  Corn inventories will be down to 80 days' worth of consumpti...

Is the macro so bad?   What is the macro (economics)? According to Investopedia: Macroeconomics is the branch of economics that deals with the structure, performance, behavior, and decision-making of the whole, or aggregate, economy. The two main areas of macroeconomic research are long-term economic growth and shorter-term business cycles. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) For a start, 2 successive quarters of GDP decline in the US is a good start on why the macro is bad.   US GDP (2018 - 2022) Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate According to the US, this alone does not imply recessions.  However, we are expecting earning compressions in the coming earnings reports. With the recent PMI coming out from China, the demand for production is slowing down.  China is one of the big producers and this should imply a drop in global demand too. Inverted Yield Curve An inverted yield curve shows that long-ter...