My Investing Muse

  This report is based on  The Conference Board  which publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world. Latest Press  Release  (Updated: Thursday, April 20, 2023) Extract from the 20 Apr 2023 press release: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®  (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 1.2 percent in March 2023 to 108.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in February. The LEI is down 4.5 percent over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.5 percent contraction over the previous six months (March–September 2022). “The U.S. LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” said  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.  “The weaknesses among the index’s components were widespread in...

  The following is extracted from the latest LEI  update  dated 22 Jun 2023. About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index: The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®  (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in April. The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022. “The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and...