My Investing Muse

Charlie Munger - What makes a good investor?   <Transcription with some minor grammatical changes> Charlie Munger shares about traits of a good investor (YAPSS) Obviously, you have to know a lot but partly it is temperament. Partly, it's delayed gratification. you got to be willing to wait. It's weird - good investing requires a weird combination of patience and aggression. And not many people have it. Also, it has to require a big amount of self-awareness of how much you know and how much you do not know.  You have to know the edge of your own competency. (But) a lot of people are no good at knowing the edge of their own competency.  They think that they are way smarter than they are.  Of course, that is dangerous and causes trouble. Source: YAPSS Shorts https://www.youtube.com/shorts/IDU0BlbagZs 

Public Holidays Nil for Singapore, China, Hong Kong and USA. Earnings Calendar Some of the earnings for the coming week starting 29 Aug 2022 Personally, the most anticipated earning for the coming week is for BYD (1211.HK or BYDDY - US OTC).  BYD is of the most vertically integrated EV manufacturers in the world.  To me, BYD is a "worthy" competitor to Tesla.  With in-house production of batteries and electronics, Tesla has gone on to become one of the top producers of EV batteries too. BYD is expanding aggressively and was venturing into mining (for raw materials).  At the same time, BYD is supplying its safe and affordable LFP batteries to several car makers (where Tesla is rumoured to be one of them).   From the chart above, BYD has been in decline since the recent high in July 2022.  Despite the decline, it has gained 3.35% compared to a year ago and it remains in the upper half of the 52-week range of 165 to 333. For the coming forecast, the market is expecting BYD to ac

Technical Analysis of Tesla Stock Note that I recommend a fundamental analysis of any company before we consider using the technicals to guide our entries.  While I am bullish about Tesla's fundamentals, here is my outlook for the coming days. Summary of Tesla as of 21 Aug 2022 From the info, we can establish the following: Tesla looks to be ranging around $900 region in the last few days. Tesla is away from the 52-week low of 620.57 & high of 1243.49. The average trading volume of Tesla was 30.03M 1D Chart of Tesla as of 21Aug22 From the above setup, here are my observations: Stochastic has started a downtrend MACD's downtrend was confirmed by the crossover after Friday (19Aug22).   The volume of Tesla for the last week starting from Monday (15 Aug 22) was 29.79M, 29.38M, 22.92M, 15.83M & 20.42M.  The trading volume of each day was under the average of 30.03M .  This reveals the loss of "strength/momentum of the trend". My 3 EMA lines are starting to merge -

Let us look the 2022 Q2 earnings of SEA LIMITED $SE (dated 16th Aug 2022). Sea has the following service offerings: E-Commerce Digital Entertainment Digital Financial Services Yahoo Finance overview of Sea as of 21Aug22 Background 52-week low & high of 54.06 & 372.70 the last closed price stood at $67.67 (as of 19 Aug 2022) The market cap of the company is $38.013B The average volume trading volume of the stock is 6.385M On the last day of the week (19 Aug 22), the trading volume stood at 11.22M following days of sell off following the disappointing earnings. Financial results (Q2 2021 vs Q2 2022) Observations (Q2 2021 vs Q2 2022): Overall revenue has increased 29.0% > this is good news. Coming to the revenue, we have the following: Concern that the "digital entertainment (that includes the gaming core) has fallen by 12.1% It is good to see the great growth in e-commerce & others has grown by 75.6% Sales of Goods has grown by 11.7% However, if we look into the costs

Public Holidays Nil for Singapore, Hong Kong, China & the USA Earnings Calendar One of the companies to watch out for during the coming earnings is NVDA. The stock suffered a drop of 14.25% from a year ago and has fallen to a recent low of $140.55. The last few weeks saw a recovery but there seems to be a ceiling around the $189 region. For the coming earnings, the forecast of EPS and revenue are 0.5297 and 6.83B respectively.  This is an important reference for the chip industry and the market outlook will be crucial to set the expectation for the rest of the industry. Economic Calendar Home sales (new and pending) in the US will be an interesting area to monitor as we read of more families backing out of their home purchases.  Be it the rising interest rates or reduced disposable income, we are seeing more cancellations.  This has brought duress to the market, especially home builders. Crude Oil inventories can be seen as a future indicator of consumption.  If the demand for oil

Public Hoildays (SG, Hong Kong, China & USA) Nil Earnings Calendar Earnings Calendar for the week starting 15 Aug 2022 Walmart In the one last year, Walmart has fallen by 11.58%.  It hit the recent 52-week low of 117.27 after reaching the high of 160.77. The forecast for the coming earnings is 1.63 and 150.93B for its EPS and Revenue respectively.  Will Walmart continue to recover despite inventory challenges (overstock) recently. SEA Limited Sea has fallen over 71% from a year ago.  Though it is away from the 52-week low of 54.06, it remains a long distance from the 52-week high of 372.70. The forecast for the coming earnings is -1.14 and 2.99B for its EPS and Revenue respectively.  Will Sea Limited be able to continue its recovery?  Personally, I will prefer for Sea Limited to enter into profits before willing to invest into the company. Economic Calendar Economic Calendar for the week starting 15 Aug 2022 Following China's Industrial Production (YoY) falling to 3.8% from th

CNBC reported on 1st Aug 2022 that we have 61% of Americans who are living paycheck to paycheck . Extract from the news article: Inflation has been causing economic hardship for workers across all income levels.  As of June, 61% of Americans — roughly 157 million adults — lived paycheck to paycheck, according to a new LendingClub report. That’s up from 58% who reported living paycheck to paycheck in May. A year ago, the number of adults who felt stretched too thin was 55%. Even top earners have been struggling to make ends meet, the report found. Of those earning $200,000 or more, 36% reported living paycheck to paycheck, a jump from the previous month.   Another recent survey, from consulting firm Willis Towers Watson, estimated 36% of those earning $100,000 or more said they were living paycheck to paycheck. With CPI remaining heightened at 8.5%, living expenses remain elevated.  This means that the disposable income of the general households is reduced, causing them to dip into thei

If we plan to take up positions for a stock using technicals.  How should I do it?  Now, let us look at a simple example using the MACD indicator with Tesla $TSLA as an example. This is done assuming that you have done your due diligence to qualify the company using fundamental analysis and are aware of the Macro developments .   For those of you who are doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA), please continue and do not stop. 1D chart of Tesla as of 2226hrs, 09Aug2022 Looking at the 1D chart, the last decline of Tesla took about 32 days (ie 1.5 months) and the climb took about 51 days (ie 2.5 months) using 1D MACD.  Should there be a cross-over of the overbought region for the MACD 1D chart , Tesla should start a downward trend. During this downtrend, there would be some days of up and some days of down   but the magnitude of the drop is much more than that of rising .  As of now, the MACD is yet to cross over. Stochastic has started a downtrend but not MACD, or EMA as yet. Based on my Te

Public holidays (Singapore, Hong Kong, China & USA) 9th Aug 2022 - National Day of Singapore Earnings Calendar Earnings Calendar for week starting 8 Aug 2022 For the coming earnings, the ones of greatest interest for me are Palantir, Coinbox and Rivian. In fact, we can foresee some volatility in cryptocurrency as big players of Coinbase and Celsius report their earnings.  For Rivian, this was touted to be one of the biggest US challengers to the EV leader Tesla.  For Palantir, they have hit a recent low and this week could see a turnaround or a further dip. Palantir Palantir's stock has fallen 47.53% from a year ago.  Though we were away from a low of 6.44, we are still a good way from the high of 29.29.   The forecast of Palantir's Q2/2022 EPS and revenue is 0.0307 and 469.09M respectively.  Will Palantir be able to continue its recovery as they venture to secure more non-government customers?  Let us hope that the climb can continue. Coinbase Coinbase has tumbled from its