My Investing Muse

  From Twitter User The Kobeissi Letter Total U.S. Debt by Year (Inflation Adjusted): - 1920: $400 billion - 1930: $300 billion - 1940: $900 billion - 1950: $3.2 trillion - 1960: $2.9 trillion - 1970: $2.8 trillion - 1980: $3.2 trillion - 1990: $7.2 trillion - 1995: $9.6 trillion - 2000: $9.7 trillion - 2005: $11.8 trillion - 2010: $18.4 trillion - 2015: $22.6 trillion - 2020: $30.7 trillion - 2022: $31.5 trillion On an inflation-adjusted basis, it took the U.S. 224 years to hit $10 trillion in debt. In the last 20 years alone, over $21 trillion in debt has been added. Meanwhile, U.S. debt is expected to hit $51 trillion by 2033, adding another $20 trillion in 10 years. Debt crisis is an understatement . Chart: U.S. National Debt Surpasses $31 Trillion | Statista My investing muse USD is the current world reserve currency. If they continue to have debt ceiling issues, this erodes the confidence in their currency. Will the other countries continue to be US-issued bonds? What happens...

How does Macro affect the stock market and companies?  Macroeconomic <Federal Reserve GOV>  Macroeconomics is the study of whole economies--the part of economics concerned with large-scale or general economic factors and how they interact in economies. <Investopedia> A macroeconomic factor is an influential fiscal, natural, or geopolitical event that broadly affects a regional or national economy. The relationships between various macroeconomic factors are extensively studied in the field of macroeconomics.  Examples of macroeconomic factors include economic outputs, unemployment rates, and inflation.    Macroeconomics look at the elements of inflation , unemployment and economic growth - driven by monetary/fiscal policies and structured in different market models (essentially capitalist versus non-capitalist).  Some of these (inflation, unemployment & economic growth) are causes, some of these effects and some are both. Factors affec...

Public Holidays No public holidays for Singapore, Hong Kong, China & the USA Earnings Calendar Earnings for the week starting 7th Nov 2022 For this coming week, there are a few earnings of personal interest, starting with Palantir, Disney, DuPont, Occidental and NIO.  For Disney, its outlook will be a good reference on the re-opening and people going out for more service/experience after 2 years of Covid19.  NIO is one of the famous China EV brands that is challenging in the luxury end.  DuPont is one of the top speciality chemicals whose outlook can be a good reference for future consumption.  Occidental's investment by Berkshire has propelled the stock into fame.  Its outlook can also be a good indicator of the economy's future consumption. Palantir Palantir's stock has fallen from its 52-week high of 27.11 and is currently at 7.93 (just above the 52-week low of 6.44.  The stock price has fallen 69.5% from a year ago.   For the coming earnin...

Food Shortage Warning For Preppers - Harvest Data Indicates Trouble Ahead by youtube channel "ClearValue Tax" (The text below is mostly transcriptions taken from the YouTube video) In September of 2021 the price of fertilizer for corn was averaging 175 dollars per acre in September of 2022 it increased to 247 dollars per acre which is a 41% increase. for soybeans, it went from 85 an acre to 110. that's a 25 increase or up 29% Oil price  Despite the recent drop, retail diesel price has still increased by 43% from a year ago On top of increasing input costs this year's growing season, it's been plagued by bad weather here and internationally from America to France to China. The consequences are showing up in the Harvest data and shrinking inventories. Corn inventory (the world's corn stocks) they're down to 12-year lows and it's expected to get worse by the end of the 2022-2023 crop year.  Corn inventories will be down to 80 days' worth of consumpti...

Palantir's earnings have been released. Despite them maintaining a 30% revenue growth through 2025, the stock tumbled by over 21%. Palantir Q1/2022 earnings vs forecast Actual revenue was $432.87M compared to the forecast of $417.67M Actual EPS was 0.02 was below the forecast is 0.0362  Personally, I do not like how the EPS is reported as they actually have an EPS loss of 0.05 using GAAP.  If the company is making a net loss, the EPS should not be positive. The following section is extracted from their earnings report: Q1 2022 Highlights Total revenue grew 31% year-over-year to $446 million Commercial revenue grew 54% year-over-year US commercial revenue grew 136% year-over-year Government revenue grew 16% year-over-year Customer count grew 86% year-over-year Loss from operations of $(39) million, representing a margin of (9)%, up 2,400 basis points year-over-year and 500 basis points sequentially Adjusted income from operations of $117 million, representing a margin of 2...

News summary from last week Facebook & Google will need to better manage their content and data to protect users. A new "Digital Services Act" has been raised in Europe to protect users from dark patterns, and illegal materials.  We can expect other parts of the world to follow. War dragged on in Ukraine though peace talks continued.  Sri Lanka has defaulted and entered into a domestic and economic crisis. The SEC's updated list on Thursday shows that 17 companies, including Li Auto, BEST, CBAK Energy Technology, Luckin Coffee, and Zhihu, were added to the provisional list of issuers identified under HFCAA. news about Shanghai port congestion China promotes talks over sanctions in dealing with Russa, seeing Asia's role in promoting peace.  President Xi proposes a global security initiative.  IMF has warned of the global fallout from Shanghai's lockdown. Covid cases rise in China as the world anticipates supplies and supply chain challenges in the week ahead....