My Investing Muse

Public Holiday Nil for Singapore, Hong Kong, China and USA Earnings Calendar There are few earnings that are of interest to me.  These include AMD, Occidental, Alibaba and Lucid. AMD's outlook will lift the lid for the chip industry.  Following the earnings beat for both ExxonMobil and Chevron, we can expect oil players like Marathon and Occidental to do well too.  For the competitive industry of EV, we can look to the earnings of Lucid for their outlook.  Finally, Alibaba will share the earnings on Thursday following being "blacklisted" by SEC - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (“HFCAA”).  It is interesting to learn how the earnings and prospects of "delisting" are being addressed.  (The charts below are mostly taken from investing dot com.) Occidental Occidental's stock gained much interest and price increase following Berkshire's investments in the last few quarters.  Within one year, the price has risen 151.92%.  After hitti...

Daily Journal Corp (DJCO) has released its Q2/2022 13F update recently.  There are some observations that I have made, especially regarding the recent purchases and sales of Alibaba shares by Mr Charlie Munger.   Charlie Munger is one of my biggest influences coming to value investing.  I am a great fan of the wit, humour and temperament that he displayed pertaining to investing - especially the patience.  In Q2/2022, there are no activities - no buy or sell in the last quarter.   From the table listing recent activities, we can see that Mr Munger is happy to sit on cash for years (No purchase or sales between Q1 2015 and Q42020).  This is a good 6 years of no activities.  It is hard to find others who can invest with such "patience".  Of course, the 13F filing reports only US stocks and does not include any international portfolios. Timeline of $BABA stock purchases by DJCO: Q1 2021 - purchase of 165,320 shares Q3 2021 - purchase of 13...

With the ending of 2022 Q2, let us take a look at the portfolios of the super investors.  Let us know and understand their biggest purchases and sales from Q1/2022. As always, I encourage all of us to do our own due diligence before investing.  As always, do not leverage, spend within your means and invest what you can afford to lose. Cloning of super investors? We should not blindly copy the trades of these super investors. I suggest that we use this list as a filter, from which we qualify each stock of interest.  Our homework will bring the necessary conviction and resolve - helping us to decide on buying, holding or selling at times of panic and euphoria.  As we each have different risk-reward tolerance, investing time horizons and different expertise with different sectors, let us be disciplined to invest within our domains (Charlie Munger & Warren Buffett would call this "circle of competence").   This list is only based on what is reported via the...

  Here are some investing ideas that were shared by MorningStar (published on 24 June 2022). The list details undervalued stocks with a wide moat. Morningstar rates moats by: network effects,   switching costs,   intangible assets,   size advantage.   These can be seen in the numbers via return on invested capital, margins, & market share. Remember, we cannot invest based on borrowed conviction. As always, please research before investing. Spend within your means and invest what you can afford to lose. Understand we may arrive at different measurements of fair value estimates.  I will still conduct a thorough fundamental analysis and enter using Technical Analysis.  I will probably look for an uptrend in their 1D chart using the MACD indicator.  The key is to buy great companies at good discounts.  We should consider the mix of portfolios.  Some of us may avoid being too heavily invested in a certain sector. Some of the companie...

Alibaba released its recent earnings on 26 May 2022.  I will focus more on YoY performance in this review as this would provide a more balanced overview of the progress. Latest Earnings beat for Q1/2022  Here is the extract from their earnings report pertaining their fiscal year ended March 31, 2022: Revenue was RMB853,062 million (US$134,567 million), an increase of 19% year-over-year that was primarily driven by the revenue growth of the China commerce segment by 18% year-over-year to RMB592,705 million (US$93,497 million), Cloud segment by 23% year-over-year to RMB74,568 million (US$11,763 million) and International commerce segment by 25% year-over-year to RMB61,078 million (US$9,635 million). Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 14% year-over-year to RMB770,734 million (US$121,580 million). Income from operations was RMB69,638 million (US$10,985 million), a decrease of 22% year- over-year . Excluding one-off and certain other items as...

Help! Charlie Munger has sold 50% of his holdings in    $BABA . Do we need to follow him?  If we ask the above question, it is likely that we have not done a deep dive into the business . Charlie Munger sold 50% of his BABA shares. People buy for 1 reason (to profit from the investment) but they can sell for a thousand reasons .   What could have led Mr Munger to sell may not be the same consideration for us.  If the stock is so bad, why should he still keep 300,000 shares?  If it is to "stop loss", wouldn't it be better for us to sell all?  This is important as we need to qualify our investment decisions through our own research.  We cannot invest based on borrowed conviction . Peter Lynch said this "If we are not able to explain the business to young children in 5 minutes, we do not know the business enough." The main consideration for our investments should be the fundamentals, moat and opportunity costs.  As one of the best va...

JP Morgan called China investable as per the 15Mar2022 news article.  Here is an extract from the news article : Chinese tech stock rout deepened, slashing billions of dollars from the likes of Alibaba Group Holding and Tencent Holdings in Hong Kong, on heightened concerns about an industry crackdown, Covid-19 outbreaks, and China's position on the Ukraine conflict. Losses spiralled after JPMorgan Chase downgraded 28 Chinese internet stocks including Alibaba, Tencent Holdings and Meituan to underweight, calling them "uninvestable" over the next six to 12 months due to rising geopolitical and macro risks, Bloomberg reported. $BABA released ownership updates as of 30 Mar 2022.  There seems to be much more institutional buying than selling as per the details below . Activity for 30Mar22 of holders (more than 0.5% change in shares outstanding) Some notable additions in Q1/2022: The Vanguard Group added 28.6M shares, totalling 469.9M shares as of 28Feb22 BlackRock Fund Adviso...

  One of the tech darlings of China   $Alibaba(BABA)$   /   $Alibaba(09988)$   has shared their quarterly earnings for the quarter ending 31 Dec 2021 on 24 Feb 2022.  This is my review. update as per 26Feb2022 From a 52 week high of 245.69, the stock (last traded at $107.94) is trying to break the downtrend as per the chart above.  With a  TTM PE ratio of 15.07 , i s this stock greatly undervalued or is this something that we need to skip ? Some Notable highlights: Global annual active consumers reached 1.28 billion as of 31 Dec 2021 with quarterly growth of 43 million. This implied a 27% year over year increase for local customers and 18% for international customers. This is made up of 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers international (outside of China). Alibaba aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2030 and has committed to an additional 1.5 gigatons of decarbonization by 2035, p...