My Investing Muse

Surge in Oil prices Oil sits at the start of inflation as the energy resources go into every part of the market. Fuel costs cascades down into the energy, utilities, supply chain and then into products & services.  For businesses that can pass additional costs to customers, they will pass the costs increase to the customers.   Let us look at oil for a start and how this commodity can create an inflationary impact whenever the crude oil price surges: Oil price increase > fuel price increase > utilities cost increase > supply chain costs increase > goods and services price increase.  (This leads to inflation as costs go up.)  We need to understand that the challenge in the USA is not really due to the oil supplies but rather the bottleneck in the refinery capacity. US petroleum consumption will reach 20.51 million bpd (barrels per day) in 2022 US refinery capacity is short by 1 million barrels per day as per EIA chart above To meet the s...

Over the recent weeks, there are much news about new vehicle production plants in China, mainly Electric Vehicles (EV).  China seems to be attracting the biggest investments to build cars, especially EV in the coming years.  While there are more "players" in the EV industry, the competition will only be good for sustainability and the consumer.  With an annual car sales of approximately 78 million (as of 2020).  With the global car market expected to grow to about USD$9 trillion by 2030, China looks to benefit significantly with news of such investments. It is no surprise as the China auto market is the single biggest market in the world.  There are no better test beds with the sheer population size of 1.3 billion.  With China poised to take over USA as the #1 global economy within the next 15 years, such investments are strategic and simply logical. While Tesla has an unquestionable lead, there will be competition in this important industry.  More imp...

  Here are some investing ideas that were shared by MorningStar (published on 24 June 2022). The list details undervalued stocks with a wide moat. Morningstar rates moats by: network effects,   switching costs,   intangible assets,   size advantage.   These can be seen in the numbers via return on invested capital, margins, & market share. Remember, we cannot invest based on borrowed conviction. As always, please research before investing. Spend within your means and invest what you can afford to lose. Understand we may arrive at different measurements of fair value estimates.  I will still conduct a thorough fundamental analysis and enter using Technical Analysis.  I will probably look for an uptrend in their 1D chart using the MACD indicator.  The key is to buy great companies at good discounts.  We should consider the mix of portfolios.  Some of us may avoid being too heavily invested in a certain sector. Some of the companie...

Public Holidays (China, Hong Kong & USA) 01 Jul 2022 - Hong Kong Public Holiday Earnings Calendar The charts below are from Earnings Whispers: Personally, I am looking at Nike, Trip, Micron and meme stock Bed Bath & Beyond. #earnings $NKE $TRIP $MU $BBBY  Source is @eWhispers  Now, let us look into Micron in detail: Micron has called over 28% from one year ago and has recently hit a 52 week low of $53.60.   At a P/E of 7.36, this is one attractive holding as we can expect the market's demands for chips to remain high over the future.  It is left to be seen how Micron will perform in the last quarter.  However, the market outlook can weigh much more on the price action than the EPS or revenue announced during the coming earnings call. From the above, the market is expecting an EPS of 2.46 and revenue of $8.68B from its 30 June 2022 earnings.  Will Micron be able to continue its reversal?  Let us monitor this closely. News Summary Sri Lanka ...

Public Holidays (USA, China & Hong Kong) 20 June 2022 - Juneteenth holiday in USA Economic Calendar Though last week's 75 basis point interest rate hike stole most of the timeline, it is still important for us to monitor some of the economic updates this week. China will be announcing their Loan Prime Rate this week. For the US, we have important indicators coming out for both new and existing home sales (May). This will be a crucial indicator of the market's recovery from the market but more affordability the demand and supply for the red hot real estate market. The initial jobless claims will form part of the key considerations for the Fed as they monitor the success of their various actions (rate hike and sale of their purchased assets). These will form the basis for the next rate hike. Will it be 50, 75 or more basis points? The last important data is the crude oil inventories. This is a forward indicator that the producers expect for the coming weeks of consumption. Th...

Over time, I have often received the question asking what is a good entry price .  After trading for a while, I have found out that it could be better to follow technicals more than some "target" prices (estimated resistance or support levels). First, resistance and support levels are not a singular price point.   Usually, the resistance or support is a zone (a range of prices), not so much a "specific" price.    As most of us know, "trend is our friend" and thus, we are recommended to trade with the ongoing trend.  To understand this better, let us look at Microsoft $MSFT using the 1D chart as an example: Looking at the 1D chart above, we can see that the price is on a decline.  From Stochastic and MACD indicators, we can see that it is on a downtrend .   Other moving averages (MA) technical references above are based on simple and exponential MA.  From the MA technicals above, this points to a likely sell trend...

Holidays   No public holidays in USA, China and Hong Kong for week starting 13 June 2022.     News Summary (week ending 12Jun22)   US credit card revolving debts over $1.103T. Over-leverage is known to send both rich and poor into financial ruin. Let us spend within our means and invest with what we can afford to lose.   Another has warned about the economic turmoil from energy market volatility. JPMorgan's CEO has also warned of economic hurricane in lieu of the surging oil prices.   Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared before lawmakers to review her annual budget. On Wednesday, Ms. Yellen said the White House is looking into reconfiguring tariffs on Chinese imports as a way to ease inflation.    Strike from South Korean truckers can affect the economy and lead to supply chain bottlenecks. Be it energy, groceries, electronics or cars ... This can be painful if it is dragged out.  Hyundai is likely to be affected. Given the current climat...