Latest unemployment data (04 June 2023)

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 The latest unemployment data was released on Friday (2nd June 2023):

  • Average hourly earnings (MoM) actual is 0.3% compared to the forecast of 0.4%

  • Nonfarm payrolls actual is 339K compared to the forecast of 180K

  • The unemployment Rate actual is 3.7% compared to the forecast of 3.5%


Despite the increase in nonfarm payroll (employment), there are more people who are unemployed.



The chart above from St Louis Fed shows that “Unemployment level - permanent job losers” is trending upwards with May 2023 hitting 1.588 million.

The other gap that we need to identify is between the US average hourly earnings against Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is commonly used (together with PCE) to identify inflation experienced by the economy. We hope to see the US average hourly earnings higher than the CPI (inflation). If the opposite happens, this means that our earnings are lesser than the inflation.


Based on YoY data, US average hourly earnings reached 4.3% whereas the latest CPI (inflation) data reaches 4.9%. This means that the rate of inflation is more than the earnings - implying the US worker is earning slower than the cost of living increase.


While there is cheer for the huge employment numbers, the Fed can remain hawkish in the coming interest rate adjustment to dampen spending. Let us continue to remain cautious in the coming days.

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