My Investing Muse

Public Holidays Nil - Singapore, Hong Kong, China & the USA Economic Calendar Economic Calendar of the week starting 31 Oct 2022 Some of the things to look out for: The week started with China's manufacturing PMI (Oct) falling to 49.2 against a forecast of 50.0.  As China remains the world's factory, this will bring concern about the weakening demand of the rest of the global market. US ISM manufacturing PMI (Oct) will be announced.  This represents the outlook of the producers/manufacturers.  If this continues to be on a downtrend, the market demand looks to be bearish. Crude Oil Inventories, this is one the leading indicators (for me) coming to inflation and consumer demand. If the inventory is more than the forecast amount, this implies a weakening demand (seen from the oil producers). Initial jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate will be important data points for the Fed to take into consideration for the last rate hike of the year.  If t...

Food Shortage Warning For Preppers - Harvest Data Indicates Trouble Ahead by youtube channel "ClearValue Tax" (The text below is mostly transcriptions taken from the YouTube video) In September of 2021 the price of fertilizer for corn was averaging 175 dollars per acre in September of 2022 it increased to 247 dollars per acre which is a 41% increase. for soybeans, it went from 85 an acre to 110. that's a 25 increase or up 29% Oil price  Despite the recent drop, retail diesel price has still increased by 43% from a year ago On top of increasing input costs this year's growing season, it's been plagued by bad weather here and internationally from America to France to China. The consequences are showing up in the Harvest data and shrinking inventories. Corn inventory (the world's corn stocks) they're down to 12-year lows and it's expected to get worse by the end of the 2022-2023 crop year.  Corn inventories will be down to 80 days' worth of consumpti...

BYD News updates (19 - 24 Oct 2022) These are compiled from the various articles from CnEVPost . BYD produces over 2 million solar modules in Brazil  In April, BYD opened a new photovoltaic module production line at its Brazil plant, allowing for increased productivity and efficiency. https://cnevpost.com/2022/10/24/byd-produces-over-2-million-solar-modules-in-brazil/ BYD launches Yuan Plus EV in Colombia.  BYD has been selling its new energy passenger vehicles in partnership with local dealers since 2020 and has delivered nearly 3,000 units in the country to date. https://cnevpost.com/2022/10/21/byd-launches-yuan-plus-ev-in-colombia/ BYD-Benz JV Denza sees 1st production unit of D9 MPV roll off line.  Denza management had previously expected 10,000 units of the model to be delivered in December, although the current delivery schedule has been delayed from the previous one. https://cnevpost.com/2022/10/21/denza-1st-production-unit-of-d9-roll-off-line/ Tesla's only challen...

Public Holidays (US, Singapore, China & Hong Kong) Singpapore - 24 Oct 2022 for Diwali No public holidays for the US, China & Hong Kong Earnings Calendar This is probably one of the most important earnings weeks because of Big Tech and other key businesses such as Oil & Gas. With the coming earnings of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple & Amazon (FAANG+ without Netflix), this is probably the most important week of earnings. From Slickcharts above, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Class A & C), & Meta account for 20.69 of the weightage in S&P500. These are the companies that are leading the growth in the US.  If Big Tech does not perform well in the coming week, it is hard to see how the rest of the companies can help the S&P500 to rally.  At the same time, companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corporation have also benefitted from the recent energy crunch.  These 2 companies are also expected to be benefitting as the world fights an energ...

Public Holidays Nil - USA, Hong Kong, China & Singapore Earnings Calendar This week has several key earnings.  I am paying attention to companies like Dow Chemicals, Netflix, Tesla and Goldman Sachs.  These companies can be seen as a "wide" representation of the different industries. Earnings for the week starting 17 Oct 2022 Tesla is one of the best innovators as we journey into a more sustainable future.  Let us look at Tesla in lieu of the coming earnings. Tesla is widely recognised as the leading EV player.  From a year ago, the stock price has fallen 27.05% and fell to its 52-week low of 204.16.  This is a good 50%+ drop from its 52-week high of 414.50.  For its coming earnings on 19 Oct 2022, the EPS and revenue forecast are 1.03 and 22.5B respectively.  Will Tesla be able to reverse the decline?  Beyond the EPS and revenue, will Tesla's outlook remain bullish?  Elon is expecting there will be a 50% increase in annual production....

From Reuters: The Labor Department's producer prices index rose 8.5% in the 12 months through September, slightly higher than an estimated 8.4% rise. The reading, however, was lower than the 8.7% increase in August. PPI MOM is 0.4% higher than 0.2% forecast As per investing dot com, The   Producer Price Index (PPI)   measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a   leading indicator   of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. News extract from Reuters  When PPI news was announced, the pre-market lost some of the earlier gains as per Reuters news above.  PPI is a leading indicator of inflation.  This shows how inflation is affecting producers.  These are likely to be passed on downstream to consumers pending the price elasticity of the products. This implies that inflation remains persistent and thus, the Fed Reserve is likely to maintain a "hawkish" stand towards the market. ...

In October, the earnings season starts and we will be seeing earnings unfold over the coming weeks. Here is an overview of key earnings that we can expect from October 2022: October 2022 key earnings For the coming week (starting 10 Oct 2022), we have the following: key earnings for the week starting 10 Oct 2022 From the Yahoo Finance article here , a few sectors are known to benefit from rising interest rates.  Here are the extracts from the article: A few sectors thrive during rate hikes, including financial services, real estate, energy and healthcare.   Financial Services Financial services, which can include banks, insurance firms and brokerage companies, is one of the key industries that benefits from a sharp rise in interest rates.   Energy The energy sector includes oil processors and refiners. This sector tends to have above-average performance during inflation and increasing rates, thanks to higher oil prices.   Healthcare Like other industries on this list...