Could China's real estate suspension lead to further decline in HKEX?
A research paper by renowned Harvard Professor of Public Policy and Economics Kenneth Rogoff and IMF Economist Yuanchen Yang estimated that the real estate sector accounts for around 29% of China’s GDP. “If 29% of GDP just marks time, let alone declines, for the next 10 years ... you will know all about it,” George Magnus, economist and research associate at the China Centre at Oxford University, said.
This includes housing investment, services such as managing, renting and buying, along with other inputs such as commodities and consumer durables. "If 29% of GDP just marks time, let alone declines, for the next 10 years ... you will know all about it, and people that sell into that market, whether internally or from outside, will also feel that,” Magnus said.
Texas A&M Economics Professor Li Gan, who said last week that the Chinese real estate sector has to become “substantially smaller” in order to keep the wider economy stable and healthy. Gan estimated that 20% of China’s housing stock is vacant as buyers rack up second and third properties as investments, while developers continue to build millions of new units each year on the back of years of excessive borrowing.
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