My Investing Muse

I have stumbled across a filtered list of US stocks. For the filter, Twitter user (Value Stock Club) uses PE, PEG, P/B and Dividend Yield as criteria for his filter (based on his understanding of value investors such as Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger). Note that this is the start of the qualification process .  There could be other value stocks that do not fit into this framework as we need to grade them differently by the industries that they are in.  However, this is a good "broad stroke" for us to research further from this filtered list.  Let us not forget to do our due diligence, to qualify the company in both their quantitative and qualitative qualities. How did $AAPL and $MU get onto this list? The following are definitions of the various ratios extracted from Investopedia. PE ratio The price-to-earnings ratio ( P/E ratio ) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS). PEG ratio The price/earn...

Holidays Hong Kong will be closed for the Easter holidays on 18 Apr 2022 (Mon) . News Sri Lanka has reached out to the international community (namely IMF and China) for help as they began their default.  Unrest was reported in the country as they ration fuel and faced power outages.   War rages on in Ukraine though there were continuing peace talks.  Following the updates of stories from previously occupied towns, the West looks to apply more sanctions on Russia. There is some tension when a US delegate visited Taiwan.  Shanghai's lockdown has eased with the lift of restrictions in selected districts. In the market, the biggest news was Elon's quest for free speech through his offer of USD$43 billion to purchase Twitter.  The US hits a record inflation rate of 8.5% and we can expect the Fed to respond with a more aggressive rate increase and asset selling. Economic Calendar Economic Calendar for the week starting 18Apr22 Notable events: China reports their...

‌Tesla ‌is a sustainable business because it is green and is also self-sustained through the profits made. Regarding ‌Twitter, Tesla investors have expressed concerns that Elon may be dividing his attention and time between the different businesses . Will Elon be spreading himself too thin?  Hopefully, this distraction does not slow down the progress and development of various businesses.  However, most Tesla investors would be too familiar with both his brilliance and the volatility that he bring.  His passion had brought success and they would expect no less for the "new" Twitter business.    The recent news exposure has driven up both interest and user usage. Tesla is an engineering marvel & case study and Twitter is a different beast in social media. Elon's experience with Giga press, 4680 batteries and production capacity does not seem to provide any relevant headstart.  Yet his cult-like status & faithful following should lend an edge as ...

Help! Charlie Munger has sold 50% of his holdings in    $BABA . Do we need to follow him?  If we ask the above question, it is likely that we have not done a deep dive into the business . Charlie Munger sold 50% of his BABA shares. People buy for 1 reason (to profit from the investment) but they can sell for a thousand reasons .   What could have led Mr Munger to sell may not be the same consideration for us.  If the stock is so bad, why should he still keep 300,000 shares?  If it is to "stop loss", wouldn't it be better for us to sell all?  This is important as we need to qualify our investment decisions through our own research.  We cannot invest based on borrowed conviction . Peter Lynch said this "If we are not able to explain the business to young children in 5 minutes, we do not know the business enough." The main consideration for our investments should be the fundamentals, moat and opportunity costs.  As one of the best va...

Technical Analysis Exercise (12Apr2022) This is looking at charts based on technical analysis of their 1D chart.  It is strongly recommended to conduct fundamental analysis before we conduct any technical analysis . Abbreviation  (based on 1D chart) MA = Moving Average MA50 = Moving Average 50 days (short term trend) MA200 = Moving Average 200 days (longer-term trend) Being prudent, I will give preference MACD indicator for the following logic:  I will rather be late than too early.  I may get lesser profits but I could (potentially) avoid a bigger loss (entering too early and catching a falling knife).   One of the factors influencing my decision will be the Beta of the stock (above 1 being more volatile).  If the stock is more volatile, I may consider leaning more on stochastic than MACD.  As per my previous article, MACD is giving a much more reliable signal than Stochastic . PLTR 1D chart as of 12Apr22 2320hrs Avg. Volume is 52,748,511 ...

Occidental saw investment from Berkshire.  Are we too late to the party if we invest now?   Business Description  Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Marketing and Midstream. The company's Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. Its Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride; vinyls comprising vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene. The company's Midstream and Marketing segment gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets oil, conden...

Insider Buys reported from "super investors" dated 8 Apr 2022 Insider Buys reported on 8 Apr 2022 Latest significant insider buys of "super investor" holdings on 8 Apr 2022 $NLSN sees insider buys of over $870million. Insider buys are usually "bullish" in nature - but there can always be exceptions. If you know the business well and are willing to invest your own money, it is typically bullish.   $PRTY $JELD $PLAY $ET $RKT $CFLT $QRHC $BRZE     Insider Buys (of last 3 months) reported from "super investors"    Top insider buys of last 3 months (from Super Investors portfolio)   Some of the significant insider buys from last 3 months include: $OXY - OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP worth $5,641,665,322 (33 counts) $ASAN - Asana Inc worth $487,450,854 ( 125 counts) $IVZ - Invesco Ltd. worth $298,659,365 ( 14 counts) $WRBY - Warby Parker Inc worth $182,709,539 (65 counts) $INCY - INCYTE CORP worth $170,795,066 (25 counts) As always, let us do ou...

some seems have switched from value to growth. this seems tad early as macro of war & COVID, inflation & interest rate will weigh in onto the market  easy credit and printing of money has brought inflation to prevent a COVID led market collapse - when Fed was caught between a rock and a hard place. there are signs of both recovery and recession. it will boil down to what gives up first. let us continue to seek great companies at good discounts so that we can maximize our returns. as always, research before investing. 

First, this is on the assumption that we have qualified the business in their financials, moat (competitive advantages in the industry), market outlook including total addressable market (TAM), etc some signs of concern include: < using Annual performance as reference>  Share dilution instead of share buybacks,  Top management changes,  Insider sales, FCF decrease,  debt increase, Revenue decline,  Net income decline,  Loss of moat,  Disruptive technologies,  Built-up of inventories,  Issue of dividends,  R&D spending without getting a moat.   Fundamentally, the financials and market outlook should remain sound and the company on track to hit the targets that they have set. Recovery from crises like "covid" is also a good indicator of the moat. $MSFT's market cap grew 50% in 2021 - so  Microsoft definitely has demonstrated a strong moat. S curve of business growth from rocketsource.co  You can find more ...

Holidays affecting markets 15 April 2022 is a public holiday for Hong Kong, the US and many other countries as Christians celebrate Good Friday and Easter Sunday.  So, it will be a shorter week for most of us. News and geopolitical outlook Covid cases in the US surge as a warning was given Dr Fauci has warned that the US may see a Covid surge in the coming Fall after 53 members of the US A-List were tested positive after a Washington dinner. The lockdown in Shanghai continues as the cases continue to surge.  The impact will hit the global market in the coming weeks.  Fortunately, this allows the US port congestion of Los Angeles and Long Beach (LALB) to ease, bringing relief to the US supply chain.  War continues as Russian troops focus their efforts on Eastern Ukraine.  More sanctions are expected to be levied on Russia.   Fed has advised a need to be more aggressive, thus spooking the market during the week.  The market is expecting a more aggr...

  Lithium prices rose from $4,450 per ton in 2012 to $78,032 per ton in 2022. Price of Lithium since 2012 and Elon Musk "getting" into mining? Elon Musk advised that the mineral is available in abundance but the refining process is expensive. Does this mean that  Tesla $TSLA or his "The Boring Company" will be entering the fray of mining and refinery solutions? This will get really interesting as Elon Musk has revolutionised every business he entered. If Elon gets into this, Tesla stands to enjoy a greater costs advantage and control of his production than the competitors.   BYD looks to be getting into this space too as per the news below. Extract from Pandaily.com news on 23 Mar 2022: Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group Co., Ltd., a Chinese developer of lithium materials, announced on Tuesday that it plans to raise up to 3 billion yuan ($471 million) by introducing BYD as a strategic investor through a targeted stock issue. Upon this issuance, it is expected ...

Mohnish Pabrai is one of my favourite value investors.  He shared a relationship with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger from Berkshire Harthaway.  $BRK.B, $BRK.A. Mohnish Pabrai Pabrai Funds portfolio as of Q4/2021 This was the collection of his 10 commandments coming to investing.  The source was  https://www.gurufocus.com/news/753022/mohnish-pabrai-talks-about-the-10-commandments-of-investing  and I have added my own thoughts in red italic fonts. Thou shall not skim off the top Pabrai thinks the fee structure in wealth and asset management is wrong. Most money managers are sinners. He takes issue with the fixed fee on assets under management. He specifically highlighted some original practitioners, Warren Buffett, who ran a 0/6/25 structure, and Munger, who ran a 0/33 type of structure. That means a 0% management fee and either 25% above a 6% hurdle or a 33% fee above a 0% hurdle. Personally, we should be rewarded with after delivered "agreed" results. There ...